(picture courtesy: LinkedIn)
Yep - The world is now lot more competitive - like never before ;) We are now competing with MACHINES - that too - our own creation (not from the alien worlds)! Yes - our battles are NO LONGER with flesh and blood - but with the machines ...
Haha, let's get into some business now ...
Recently, Goldman Sachs dropped a disturbing bombshell:
Breakdown, country-wise (% of jobs that can be replaced by AI ; Category RED; DM: Developed market, EM: Emerging Market; Figure source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
25% of current jobs can be eliminated by AI automation, in US and Europe
Wow - this sounds like a big emerging threat to the global labor market - also, surprisingly, not due to some sort of economic depression or recession, but actually great advancement in technology in recent years (something to be proud of in the first place)!
Such recent revelations also prompt one to ask oneself - "Is my job impacted?", "To what extent?", "What can I do to save my job from AI?". To answer such key questions of today's time, let's first dive into the details of - "how precisely" is "AI trying to take away jobs"?. Precisely - what kind of jobs / tasks is AI trying to take away, fully or partly?
Let's look at some more stats, to help answer these ...
Category RED: 25% of current jobs can be eliminated by AI automation, in US and Europe (Figure source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research)
These include, 46% of jobs in office administrative support, 44% in Legal, 32% in Management, 31% in Sales and Related and so on
(Look for your industry in the chart above, to get a sense of how much is your job impacted)
Another chart from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (Exhibit 8) indicates breakdown, industry-wise: dark blue: % of jobs unlikely to be replaced by AI, grey: % of jobs likely to be replaced by AI, light blue: % of jobs complemented by AI
(Look for your industry in the chart above, to get a sense of how much is your job impacted)
So, from the two charts above, one can sense how much is one's job / domain impacted by the on-going AI revolution / shake-up.
"Category BLUE" - What To Do?
So, if you are in the Category BLUE (un-affected jobwise) - "woohoo" for ya ... congrats ... you are off the hook (at-least for now, haha) !!! Now you should take a break and go to the beach with your date and dog ... but check the weather first, haha!Do check Section "How to judge if a job is replacable by AI?".
"Category RED" - What To Do?
I am extremely sorry if you are in Category RED (job replaced by AI)! So, what can you do now? You will have to re-plan your career path. A word of encourgement - Historically, since the start of human civilization, as technology kept advancing / evolving, many kinds of jobs got phased out, along the way - Hence we can learn from history how to deal with such situations in today's day and age.For example, when the wheel was invented many human transporters lost jobs to the "wheel". And even much more - when motorized vehicles were invented. (Not just humans - beloved horses, donkeys suffered, likewise). Invention of Internet and email led to many job cuts in the Postal Services and typewriting sectors. If you look back at history - you will find many examples as these. So, many kinds of jobs being phased away (even partly), as technology regularly evolves / advances - is nothing new - it keeps happening every now and then!
So those affected, need to re-plan their career paths, learn some new skills (needed in the new / current labor market), and re-enter the labor market.
In any case, "ALL OF US" (NO EXCEPTION!) have to constantly learn and upgrade their respective skill sets. Else, we can quickly and easily "fall out" of the labor market - as time and advancement does not pause for anyone. "Today" will be obsolete tomorrow ...
So yes, take heart and move forward with a new career plan! One truly positive aspect of today's time is the ongoing AI revolution, which has been opening plethora of opportunities for the future.
Check the Resources Section.
Do check Section "How to judge if a job is replacable by AI?".
"Category ORANGE" - What To Do?
Now if you are in Category ORANGE (job being complemented by AI) - What about you? - You are not off the hook! ... oh yes - you have work to do - You have to learn / adapt - how to use AI to complement your job and make it faster - else you will loose your job to those who do it before you !!!Also, know that the need for human man-hours will reduce in your domain. Hence, some of you may loose job as well, unless all folks in your domain decide to take pay cuts! - meaning increase in competition in your domain!
So, you have to work on your career plan as well!
Check the Resources Section.
How to Judge if "a job" can be Replaced by AI?
This is very important to understand, in this day and age, amid the ongoing AI revolution.In general, to infer if a job can be replaced by AI, you can reason like in the following example.
Tasks are usually multi-faceted. Take the example of "driving a car". It requires "perceiving" (see, listen, ...) the environment (very crude / noisy, often marred by bad weather / road conditions) "well", then making accurate decisions about how not to collide with other vehicles (and objects in the surrounding), maintain balance, obey all traffic rules, and keep driving (rhythmically steer the wheel, pump gas pedal, make "correct" turns, ...) towards the destination, respond well to emergency situations (i.e., an accident), etc etc. Obviously, there is a LOT going on here. There is no AI system currently available, that can do each of these aspects "well" enough and then also "piece" them together and derive a final driving solution that is safe enough to be "released" in today's mainstream driving world. Hence as of today, AI systems cannot replace human drivers in mainstream world settings. But, in the future, these may be entirely possible (as we know technology keeps evolving / advancing with time) - but we cannot guarantee that, as of today.
Likewise, in general, just think of any job (i.e., customer service, managing a group / organization, engineering AI systems, being a chef, being a cancer researcher, being a doctor, being a surgeon, making a movie, etc etc) and break it down into distinct sub-tasks and ask yourself - is there an AI system available to replace a sub-task? It could be possible to replace a subset of sub-tasks entirely by existing AI systems (such as a customer service chatbot like ChatGPT). If all sub-tasks can be replaced by existing AI systems, then does there exists an AI system that can "piece" together all sub-tasks and derive a fully automated solution to the job? If "no", then this job cannot be replaced by AI, as of today (But still, if a subset of sub-tasks can be replaced by existing AI systems, then this job can be complemented with AI).
Another example - just to clean up a room floor without any human help - you may possibly ask Roomba (a popular fully autonomous AI/robotic vacuum cleaner). But, there does not exist an AI/robotic system that can clean up an entire home / building (with multiple rooms / floors, bathrooms, stairs, porche, ...) by itself - Hence, for these we still need human labor (possibly complemented by Roomba like AI).
Simpler the task is - higher the possibility for state-of the art AI/robotic systems to be able to fully automate it - with no need of human labor. And, the more intellectually complex / convoluted a typical human job is, harder will it be for the state-of-the AI/robotic systems to automate it, and in many cases not even feasible (i.e., full self-driving as of today).
Also remember, one challenge in trying to replace a human task / job with AI / robot, is we do not fully understand how human mind and intelligence work. We have some great understanding, but we are still far from "full" understanding. This does not mean that developers of AI systems have to wait til researchers figure these out. They can find other ways to reach their goals. But the more we understand about human mind and intelligence in the future, the more it could help in developing AI systems that can mimic human behavior and actions. Remember, neural networks which is at the heart of the on-going AI revolution is inspired by the neural structure in the brian.
So, I hope now you know a of way to evaluate for yourself, if a job can be replaced by state-of-the-art AI systems (Internet can help you with more information / details).
Fortunately, Internet is already flooded with resources (many are free!) to help one do these. I hope you know, "very well", how to use Internet search engines (a very basic need of today's time!).
These are just "some" great ones that I am aware of:
So, I hope now you know a of way to evaluate for yourself, if a job can be replaced by state-of-the-art AI systems (Internet can help you with more information / details).
Resources Needed For Adaptation Amid AI Revolution
We learnt in the previous sections - (1) some of us need to re-plan our career paths (Category RED), learn new skill sets and re-enter the labor market, (2) all of us need to adapt our skill-sets to keep up with new technogical advancements amid the on-going AI revolution.Fortunately, Internet is already flooded with resources (many are free!) to help one do these. I hope you know, "very well", how to use Internet search engines (a very basic need of today's time!).
These are just "some" great ones that I am aware of:
- "AI For Everyone" from Coursera - Free to Audit!
- Udacity School Of AI
- AI courses from Udemy
- AI courses from EdX ("IBM: AI for Everyone" is FREE!)
Check at latest job postings to know what skills are in demand these days.
US residents can check career search websites to get an idea of the current day job market - https://www.careeronestop.org/, https://www.mynextmove.org/, https://www.onetonline.org/
Now affected folks (in category RED - who are loosing their jobs to AI) need help of business leaders and governments, who need to ensure that ample new jobs and training (needed to re-enter the evolving / changing labor market) are available, in a timely fashion, for the affected folks.
Thankfully many great, new kinds of jobs are already being created (i.e., prompt engineering, AI engineering for building and servicing state-of-art AI systems, etc). But more innovation on the part of business leaders may be needed, so that each and every person who looses job to AI has a new opportunity.
Overall, all parties (affected folks, government, business leaders) need to work together to resolve this emerging crises of job displacements, due to the ongoing AI revolution, such that all affected folks find new jobs / opportunities, smoothly, in a timely fashion).
Governments also need to regulate AI - as AI is now a very powerful beast (very expensive as well). For example, there is a danger that, currently, only big / rich / powerful companies can develop / use highly scalable AI powered products. Let's take the example of Chat-GPT. It is one of the most influential AI systems of current time. These kind of AI systems give enourmous advantage to businesses at global level. BUT, it took tens of thousands of GPUs to train Chat-GPT. Only few big and rich organizations accross the world has access to such a humongous amount of resources. This points to the danger that if the current AI revolution is not democratically and fairly regulated, it may lead to more damage than good to human civilization -- for instance, rich becoming ricer and poor forced to becoming poorer.
And, not just buissness, job candidates too are in danger -- can only rich have access to expensive AI infrastructure to train themselves in the field of AI? (Yes, AI is very expensive - both usage and educational-training - part of it comes from the needed expensive GPU infrastructure to exercise modern day AI). Governments, communities need to ensure that AI infrastructure is of avail to masses, so that no one un-fairly misses out. They also need to ensure masses get the right training to use AI in work & life.
US residents can check career search websites to get an idea of the current day job market - https://www.careeronestop.org/, https://www.mynextmove.org/, https://www.onetonline.org/
HELP Needed from Governments, Leaders
*** This is VERY IMPORTANT ***Now affected folks (in category RED - who are loosing their jobs to AI) need help of business leaders and governments, who need to ensure that ample new jobs and training (needed to re-enter the evolving / changing labor market) are available, in a timely fashion, for the affected folks.
Thankfully many great, new kinds of jobs are already being created (i.e., prompt engineering, AI engineering for building and servicing state-of-art AI systems, etc). But more innovation on the part of business leaders may be needed, so that each and every person who looses job to AI has a new opportunity.
Overall, all parties (affected folks, government, business leaders) need to work together to resolve this emerging crises of job displacements, due to the ongoing AI revolution, such that all affected folks find new jobs / opportunities, smoothly, in a timely fashion).
Governments also need to regulate AI - as AI is now a very powerful beast (very expensive as well). For example, there is a danger that, currently, only big / rich / powerful companies can develop / use highly scalable AI powered products. Let's take the example of Chat-GPT. It is one of the most influential AI systems of current time. These kind of AI systems give enourmous advantage to businesses at global level. BUT, it took tens of thousands of GPUs to train Chat-GPT. Only few big and rich organizations accross the world has access to such a humongous amount of resources. This points to the danger that if the current AI revolution is not democratically and fairly regulated, it may lead to more damage than good to human civilization -- for instance, rich becoming ricer and poor forced to becoming poorer.
And, not just buissness, job candidates too are in danger -- can only rich have access to expensive AI infrastructure to train themselves in the field of AI? (Yes, AI is very expensive - both usage and educational-training - part of it comes from the needed expensive GPU infrastructure to exercise modern day AI). Governments, communities need to ensure that AI infrastructure is of avail to masses, so that no one un-fairly misses out. They also need to ensure masses get the right training to use AI in work & life.