Global Warming - Current State & Impacts

Mitul Saha
(Last Updated: 1 October 2022)

Earth's temperature has been rising at an ALARMING RATE! Specifically, by 0.32℉ (0.18℃) per decade - TWICE MORE THAN (!!!) of what it was before 1981 (and since 1880) (see picture below)

Global warming rate over the past 2000 years
(Note - right side - the ALARMINGLY higher rates in the last couple of decades)
(Adapted from USA TODAY)

The effects of this global warming on life & matter on our planet earth has already been VERY damaging. And the projected effects are very concerning as well, and screams for - an immediate, utterly-serious response from all humanity! The situation now is so concerning that some scientists FEAR an APOCALYPTIC DISASTER (!!!), and are calling for an immediate research / investigation on all the potential catastrophic outcomes of the ongoing global warming, INCLUDING human extinction (yes you read it right!), in the "not so distant" future!!! AND - BTW, the SIXTH mass extinction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction; meaning, current rate of species extinction is 100-1000 times higher than normal !!!) has ALREADY begun.

CAUSES

So, how did this all start (and is continuing)? Researchers believe it all started since human beings started burning fossil fuels! - Precisely, since industrial revolution - due to heat-trapping greenhouse gas emitted from human driven activities (such as fossil fuel burning). Here is the breakdown / contribution chart for greenhouse gases from https://EPA.GOV:

As seen above, CO2 is by far single largest contributor to greenhouse gasses in question (at ~76%, as of 2014 - yes epa.gov owes us more recent numbers). Even though methane is distant second at 16%, it is 80 times more powerful than CO2 in trapping heat into Earth's atmosphere (But also methane has an average lifetime of about a decade compared to centuries of CO2). Overall, it is agreed - both CO2 and methane need to be dealt with utmost seriousness in combating global warming.

Above (from https://EPA.GOV) lists various known significant sources (with associated contribution in percentage) of greenhouse gases. (CAUTION: this is based on data from 2014 - yes, epa.gov owes us more recent numbers)

Also NOTE - the SCARY DOMINO EFFECT accelerates the global warming even more (i.e., global warming triggers release of stored greenhouse gases in forests & permafrost, leading to even more global warming).

Now who is producing how much ?! :-

From https://8billiontrees.com


Also needs attention, CO2 emissions per capita, countrywise:

From https://8billiontrees.com

How bad is the situation right now?

Now we list how global warming has been impacting life & matter on earth, in very concerning ways (with recent alarm from some to immediately study the possibility of human extinction):-
  • The SIXTH mass extinction of species has already begun and is attributed mainly to global warming. Specifically, it means the current extinction rate of species is 100 to 1000 times higher than normal . For instance, 90% of marine species are on the path to extinction by the end of 2100. These are utterly unacceptable by all standards (i.e., moral, etc). Such mass extinction of species will result in disruptions / breakdowns in ecosystems, which in turn will result in disruptions / breakdowns in larger systems. For instance - serious loss of soil fertility & food security, serious water shortages & natural disasters, and even potentially more pandemics (For more, read this) .
  • Compared to 50 years ago, there is now a FIVE-FOLD INCREASE in weather related disasters (!!!) (droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, floods, storms, hurricanes, etc) around the world. .
    • Recently, the World Economic Forum (WEF) ranked climate change as the biggest risk to the economy and society .
    • The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that climate change is the "single biggest health threat facing humanity".
    • Global warming is now linked to 5 millions deaths per year (10% of global deaths linked to abnormally hot or cold temparatures - read)
    • Economic loses from climate related disasters rose from $175.4 billion in the 1970s to $1.38 trillion in the 2010s (read).
    • Globally 23.7 million people were displaced from their homes in 2021 due to climate related events (read). Global warming is in question here as climate related disasters have increased five-fold in the last 50 years, due to global warming.
    • In another recent example - In Aug'2022, one third of Pakistan was submerged by historic flooding from unprecedented monsoon rainfall (exacerbated by climate change), leading to severe damage and disruption to life and infrastructure, nationwide.
  • Global warming is causing sea level to ALARMINGLY rise in two ways: (1) melting glaciers and ice sheets worldwide are adding to ocean volume, and (2) ocean volume expands as water warms. Rising sea levels pose a serious threat to coastal life / health / economy / infrastructure / systems / land (i.e., damaging high-tide / storm-surge / hurricane flooding, potential loss of land, contamination of soil and groundwater with salt). (A 2021 study, which Kopp also co-authored, found that sea level rise caused by the climate crisis added another $8 billion in flood damage to Superstorm Sandy's impacts - read).
    • Around 680 million people live in low-lying coastal zones (hence susceptible to damages from rising sea-level) - that is expected to increase to a billion by 2050, according to U.N.. Quoting from from - "In the United States, almost 30 percent of the population lives in relatively high population-density coastal areas ......, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, 8 of the world's 10 largest cities are near a coast (according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans)
    • Cities around the world are at risk of disappearing due to rising sea-level. Quoting from a new source - “Jakarta, home to around 10 million people, has been dubbed the 'fastest-sinking city in the world' by the BBC it is sinking by 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) each year due to 'excessive groundwater drainage', according to Earth.org a nonprofit environmental organization based in Hong Kong. When coupled with rising sea levels, this is a recipe for disaster. According to the World Economic Forum (WEP) third of Jakarta (population: ~10 million) could be underwater by 2050. But Jakarta is far from the only city with an uncertain future. According to the World Economic Forum by 2100, Dhaka (Bangladesh, population 22.4 million), Lagos (Nigeria, population 15.3 million), and Bangkok (Thailand, population 9 million), are among 11 cities, which could be entirely drowned or have vast tracts of land underwater and unusable.”
  • Food Security: Climate change is threatening both quantity and quality of global crop production - in-turn, threatening the global economy as well as public health.
    • Climate change caused ~30% of year-to-year fluctuations in tonnes of crops grown per hectare . Climate change will make 8 percent of the world's farmland "unsuitable" by 2100
    • Decline / damage in global crop production and even cattle health can come from climate induced disasters (regional flooding, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires) and supply chain disruptions.
    • Decline in food nutrition: Higher concentration of carbon monoxide results in reduction of protein, zinc, and iron contents in plants. As a result, by 2050, ~175 million people are at risk of developing zinc deficiencies and ~122 million people are at risk of developing protein deficiencies.
  • #HEALTH - The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that climate change is the "single biggest health threat facing humanity". Modern times rampant climate induced disasters (flooding, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires) frequently result in loss of life and health, particularly among older adults, the very young, and other vulnerable populations.
    • Over half of all pathogenic diseases have been exacerbated by climate change, new research found
    • Quoting reporter Melissa Denchak: "Rising temperatures also worsen air pollution by increasing ground-level ozone smog, which is created when pollution from cars, factories, and other sources react to sunlight and heat. Ground-level ozone is the main component of smog, and the hotter things get, the more of it we have. Dirtier air is linked to higher hospital admission rates and higher death rates for asthmatics. It worsens the health of people suffering from cardiac or pulmonary disease. And warmer temperatures also significantly increase airborne pollen, which is bad news for those who suffer from hay fever and other allergies."
  • Now, this is really shameful: Climate injustice: Quoting reporter Paddison: "The world's wealthiest 10% were responsible for around half of global emissions in 2015, according to a 2020 report from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute. The top 1% were responsible for 15% of emissions, nearly twice as much as the world's poorest 50%, who were responsible for just 7% and will feel the brunt of climate impacts despite bearing the least responsibility for causing them (also see Figure below) ... A billionaire, one of the world's most high-profile environmental advocates, took 59 flights in 2017, according to Gossling's calculations, covering a distance of around 343,500km (213,000 miles) - more than eight times around the world - generating more than 1,600 tonnes of greenhouse gases (that's equivalent to the average yearly emissions of 105 Americans)". Remember, unlike with rich, climate induced disasters (i.e., bad harvest, illness in self or in family, etc) can bring crippling economic shocks onto a poor.

    Climate injustice (shocking, shameful): those who will suffer the most, due to climate change, also happen to be the least responsible for it! (via thecoversation.com)

How much worse can things get?

  • Some scientists now fear even an apocalyptic disaster, from continued global warming, and are calling for immediate research / investigation on the catastrophic outcomes of global warming, INCLUDING human extinction (yes you heard it right!), in the not-so-distant future
  • The ongoing sixth mass extinction of species, if continued for a while, will result in disruptions / breakdowns in ecosystems, which in turn will result in disruptions / breakdowns in larger systems. For instance - serious loss of soil fertility & food security, serious water shortages & natural disasters, and even potentially more pandemics (For more, read this)
  • Tipping points refer to huge, irreversible changes caused by global warming . Even lot more concerning is - passing one tipping point is often likely to help trigger others, producing cascades, leading to cascading severe impacts. Five tipping points may have already passed (!!!). These include the collapse of Greenland's cap (which will eventually cause huge sea level rise), the collapse of a key current in the north America (disrupting rain affecting food supply for billions of people), and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost (they potentially hold TWICE (!!!) as much carbon then currently present in Earth's atmosphere - release of which, via CO2 and methane, would obviously be catastrophic)
  • Note, the Paris Agreement recommends humanity to limit global warming to preferably 1.5℃, compared to pre-industrial levels (Even with 1.5℃ of global warming, according to IPCC 2022 report : "... many glaciers around the world will either disappear completely or lose most of their mass; an additional 350 million people will experience water scarcity by 2030; and as much as 14% of terrestrial species will face high risks of extinction.")
  • With the current global warming trend, the SCARY DOMINO EFFECT will accelerate the global warming (i.e., global warming triggers release of stored greenhouse gases in forests & permafrost, leading to even more global warming)

What Should We Be Doing?

  • Climate change is now the single biggest threat modern humans are facing. The situation is now so dire, that some scientists have raised alarm - we need to study the apocalyptic possibility of continued global warming, asap
  • We need to all step up and work towards saving the planet, ASAP. As, at this point, even the current national pledges under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5℃ (recommended max) and to even 2℃ after 2030, according to IPCC'22.
  • Be clear about the full range of consequences of continued global warming, as recently some scientists raised alarm by saying we need to study the apocalyptic possibility of continued global warming, asap.
    • Prepare a mindset / attitude of urgency
  • Keep spreading awareness
  • Do something & keep doing something, at-least till the climate change "urgency" is mitigated.
    • Say, at different levels: (1) Personal, (2) Communities you are part of
      • Quoting from https://www.un.org/actnow, two types of personal lifestyle changes:
        • "The production, processing, transport, consumption, and disposal of food all contribute to greenhouse-gas emissions. To reduce your impact on the climate, buy local and seasonal food, eat more plant-based meals, use up what you have, and compost any leftovers."
        • "Much of our electricity and heat are still powered by coal, oil, and gas. Airplanes and cars also run mostly on fossil fuels. To reduce your carbon footprint, use less energy at home, switch to a wind or solar-energy provider, skip a long-haul flight, and drive less."
      • "Climate action is a task for all of us. Concrete steps need to be taken by all sectors of society - first and foremost by governments, businesses and industry. Speak up! Appeal to world leaders, urge your city, your bank and your employer to take urgent action toward net-zero emissions." (https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/act-now-speak)
  • Encourage governments and local authorities to take all needed actions to help mitigate climate change "urgency" ASAP! (https://www.un.org/actnow, https://www.nature.org/en-us/tackle-climate-change)